Germany has voted for a course correction, but will it mean anything?
Why should anyone take Germany seriously?
No matter who governs the next four years, we need to collectively get over ourselves and admit some difficult truths.
We successfully ignored it, but it has been for years. We’ve spent decades collecting the fruits of American economic and military prowess, trying to regulate the world, and tying ourselves to powers we can’t control.
Now we’ve lost much negotiating strength because…
It was all good and well to focus on the energy transition, on data protection, even to talk about a 4-day workweek—while we were growing and virtually everyone was relatively well-off. We had our chances to shape real global conversations, but we never dared take that responsibility.
Now no one takes us seriously (hi, JD!). And honestly, why should they? We don’t have much to offer anymore, and we couldn’t defend ourselves if we had to.
I haven’t heard anyone tell me a clear growth story for the German (or European) economy for the coming decades. We won’t win the next manufacturing wave with our current energy costs and regulatory environment, and I’ll be (pleasantly) shocked if we suddenly started producing outstanding software companies at scale.
So where is growth supposed to come from?
We won’t out-US the US, and I wouldn’t even want to try out-China’ing China. They play the scale side of the smiling curve infinitely better than we can—so what are we uniquely good at?
Building niche winners. Leading with the global best in every hardware industry, maybe even some niche software fields. Not the mostest biggest; not the cheapest; but the best. We won’t create unicorns, but we will create a great economic environment.
The policies of the next four years will only make so much of a difference. What we really need is a ~vibe shift~.
It’s going to take less complaining and more building from SMEs. Honest looks in the mirror. Creative thinking and clever market positioning. Focus and hard work.
Then we might stand a chance.